Enrollment in US colleges has been declining steadily for more than a decade. In fact, there are about 2.2 million fewer students enrolled in college today than there were just 10 years ago. The biggest reason to date for the decline is that many college-aged students simply don’t believe the rising cost of higher education is worth it anymore.
As we recently reported, despite declining enrollment, US colleges are bringing in more total revenue than ever before because the prices just keep getting higher and higher. So, to date, universities haven’t really had to worry too much about losing students.
But here’s the thing — the trend of declining college enrollment we’ve witnessed over the last 10+ years is about to get significantly worse.
Despite a slight increase in enrollment last year for the first time in a long time, many experts believe enrollment numbers are about to fall off a cliff starting in 2025 thanks to a simple demographic problem — the number of college-aged Americans is shrinking rapidly.
The decline began approximately 17 years ago. Before that, the national birth rate had been on the rise, reaching an all-time high in 2007, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
However, the Great Recession caused fertility rates to plummet, and birth rates are still low to this day.
Between 2007 and 2022, the national birth rate dropped nearly 23 percent, from 14.3 births per 1,000 people to 11.0, based on CDC data. The period from 2007 to 2009 saw the fastest decline in fertility rates in recent history.
What does it all mean?
The college-age population in the US is about to shrink significantly starting in 2025 and for many years to come.
In other words, colleges are going to have a much smaller market of potential customers to attract, and with their existing market already opting out of enrolling at an ever-increasing rate, the future of higher education institutions is becoming increasingly uncertain. This demographic shift will likely force colleges to reevaluate their recruitment strategies, financial models, and program offerings to remain sustainable and relevant in a changing educational landscape.
Simply put, colleges may have to start working hard to convince young Americans about the value of higher education.
The cost of going to college has increased at more than 3x the rate of inflation over the last 40 years, and many college-aged individuals have started to question if the ROI of higher education is actually worth it.
Recently, a Gallup survey found that American confidence in higher education has dropped to just 36%, plummeting from 57% just 9 years ago.
Ultimately, the future of colleges and universities will depend on their ability to innovate and adapt to the shrinking demographic of college-age students and the evolving needs of a new generation.
With fewer potential students and increasing skepticism about the value of higher education, institutions that can pivot effectively will thrive, while those that cannot may struggle to maintain relevance and sustainability.